If the draft regulations are pushed through unchanged, at least 20 per cent of the new vehicles each automaker sells in Canada must be non-emitting by 2026, but car companies will be under no obligation to reach that threshold in all provinces. The same would apply as higher percentages of national ZEV sales are required into the 2030s, meaning some provinces could do the heavy lifting, while others lag on adoption.
This disjointed rollout has been the case so far.
Through the first two quarters of 2022, B.C. and Quebec accounted for 36.5 per cent of all new light-duty vehicle registrations in Canada, but 63.2 per cent of new ZEVs registrations, according to the latest data available from Statistics Canada.
Add in Ontario, and the three provinces made up 93 per cent of all new ZEV registrations, compared to 76 per cent of all vehicle registrations.
David Adams, president of the Global Automakers of Canada, which represents overseas brands in the country, said one of the main goals of Ottawa’s ZEV mandate was to encourage “more ubiquitous availability” of ZEVs across the country.
“As it sits right now, I’m not sure [the mandate] will change the current dynamic where we have a lot of vehicles going into Quebec and B.C.”
Adams, who has been critical about the effectiveness of a federal ZEV mandate since it was first floated last year, said he would prefer to see measures to support ZEV adoption, such as extra credits provided for selling in underserved markets.
Looking to a federal ZEV mandate as a cure-all that will ease supply shortages and lower costs within the ZEV segment is misguided, Adams added.
“All that will happen naturally over the course of time,” he said, noting the automakers he represents are all “moving in that direction,” but the pivot to ZEVs cannot happen overnight.