What’s the Chance of a Recession? Here’s What Economists Are Saying.


The Canadian bank’s economics team, led by Beata Caranci, the chief economist, is not expecting a U.S. recession, although “with growth close to stall speed, there is a very thin margin for error if another shock hits economies.”

Jeremy Schwartz, the director of U.S. economics at the Swiss bank, thinks that inflation will “slow eventually” but not by enough to tip the U.S. economy into a recession. Instead, “a prolonged growth slump is increasingly likely.”

The Federal Reserve has a “fighting chance” to tame inflation without causing a recession, writes Kathy Bostjancic, the group’s chief U.S. economist. She has cut her forecasts for growth, which come “precariously close to tipping into a recession by mid-2023,” she says.

The team at Fitch Ratings, led by Brian Coulton, the chief economist, expects that economic growth will slow to just 0.1 percent per quarter in the second through fourth quarters next year, a pace that will put the economy “perilously close to the risk of technical recession.”

Analysts at the German bank, led by Holger Schmieding, the chief economist, expect the U.S. economy to stagnate in late 2022 and shrink in the first three quarters of 2023, but only by a “relatively modest” 0.4 percent for the year. “With luck, the recession will be a shallow one,” they write.

Months ago, economists at the German bank forecast that the U.S. economy would tip into a recession by the end of 2023, but now they expect “an earlier and somewhat more severe recession,” according to the team led by Matthew Luzzetti, the bank’s chief U.S. economist. They expect the economy to shrink 0.5 percent in 2023.

A recession in 2023 “seems more likely than not,” according to a report by Jay Bryson, the bank’s chief economist. His forecast is for the economy to shrink 1 percent over two quarters next year, “one of the milder downturns in the post-W.W. II era,” similar to the recession in the early 1990s. For something resembling a silver lining, he writes, “Because we think the downturn will not be especially deep, we do not expect the labor market to fall completely apart.”



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